Interview with Dr. John Wakabayashi of CSU Fresno
- What is the likelihood of an earthquake that could cause major damage and building collapse in Fresno? (This is not very likely. Fresno is a long distance from faults that produce earthquakes. There is no doubt we would feel a major earthquake on the central San Andreas fault, but we don't expect major damage, owing to the distance of an earthquake on this fault from Fresno.
- What data shows that earthquakes in the Cascadian Subduction Zone occur every 350 years (Earthquake recurrence is not that regular. The average recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone is longer than 350 years in fact, but the intervals between earthquakes are rather irregular ranging from 300 years or so to more than 600. The evidence for past earthquakes comes mainly from past tsunami deposits as well as evidence of period subsidence along the coast from northernmost California through Oregon and Washington. In addition the most recent event (AD1700) has been dated on the basis of tsunami runup in Japan. Note that Cascadia is much farther from Fresno than the San Andreas fault and although an M9 earthquake on it will severely damage coastal Oregon, coastal Washington, and the northernmost part of coastal California, this is far too distant from Fresno to be damaging here.)
- How much of the Fresno population do you believe knows about this earthquake? (In the interview there was no specific earthquake being discussed, rather we were discussing general principles of earthquake hazard. For Fresno, the scenario earthquake that would be used for engineering purposes would be a repeat of the 1857 earthquake on the central San Andreas fault (M7.8). Based on studies on likely scenario earthquakes and studies of how ground shaking diminishes with distance, that type of earthquake is likely to cause the strongest shaking of any alternative scenario in Fresno. This is still rather mild shaking compared to what would be experienced closer to the earthquake. I don't believe that Fresnans are really aware that such a scenario earthquake is likely to be the strongest folks would feel here, but, to put this in perspective, I don't think the average person in the SF Bay Area (where seismic hazard is so much greater) are any more aware of the "scenario earthquake" for where they live than folks here in Fresno.)
- What percentage of the Fresno population do you believe is prepared for this earthquake? (Because this scenario earthquake is not expected to severely shake Fresno, you could say that most of the population here IS prepared simply because the population here does not need to be prepared for major shaking as folks in the Los Angeles area or the Bay Area would need to be. )
- Would there be anything besides shaking that would cause damage from this earthquake? (no)
- If people were educated about this earthquake, would there be a lower chance for injuries and fatalities? If so, about how much? (Again, we don't expect fatalities in Fresno, nor do we expect that preparation here will make a difference simply because Fresno is not that severely threatened)
- How can civilians prepare for an earthquake? (In areas that are truly menaced by earthquakes (ie SF Bay Area, Los Angeles area, etc.), much of the preparation has to do with how things are arranged in one's home or office. One must bolt bookshelves and such to studs (as I did when I lived in Hayward but do not do here in Fresno), be aware not to put loose things in places where they can fall or collapse on you where you are sitting, place various restraints on other shelves to keep things from being shaken off or doors being shaken open, be sure one's house is bolted to its foundation (generally the case for all but the very oldest of homes), etc. Folks should be aware of what do in the event of an earthquake: what sorts of places to take shelter in, given one's location, etc. In coastal areas, this includes tsunami awareness)
- Is there some way to prevent an earthquake? If so, how? (No, the forces involved are well beyond human capability to impede them. )
- What would you do to educate civilians about earthquakes? (Education of civilians to earthquakes can take place through a number of pathways from formal education (K-12, college), to less formal ways)
- Will an earthquake in any way hurt our valley’s agriculture? (Growing plants are not going to be impacted directly by shaking but aspects of their support can. The most devastating scenario is that of an earthquake that destroys the levees of the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta. This would knock out 70 percent of the State's water supply.
- What does Fresno has prepared an if earthquake were to occur? (see above, Fresno will not be directly impacted by an earthquake. However, many different scenario earthquakes so distant that we won't even feel them here may be capable of destroying the Delta levees and nobody in the state, not Fresno, nor anyone else, is really prepared to cope with a disaster of that nature.)
- What will the magnitude of this earthquake be? (If we are talking about that distant earthquake on the San Andreas fault, the estimated magnitude is M7.8. Again, distance counts. This is why we didn't feel a thing here when NE Japan was rocked with an M9 earthquake in 2011.)
Books
- When the Earth Moves by Sandra Downs
- Volcanoes and Earthquakes by Dr. Eldridge M. Moores
Websites
- http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2013/12/11/imagine-america-without-los-angeles-expert-warns-southern-california-isnt-ready-for-major-quake/
- http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/22/local/la-me-earthquake-report-20110622
- http://www.kmph.com/Global/story.asp?S=11489737
- http://www.usa.com/fresno-ca-natural-disasters-extremes.htm
- http://www.usgs.gov/faq/?q=taxonomy/term/9834
- http://www.usgs.gov/faq/?q=categories/9834/3334
- http://www.calema.ca.gov/planningandpreparedness/pages/earthquake-preparedness.aspx
- http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/7877